Weather markets · inside Claude

The market is a price.
Your job is the probability.

Ask Claude what a contract is worth: a Monte Carlo distribution over live NWS data, at the station it settles on (KNYC, KMDW…).

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One-click OAuth · Monte Carlo on the free tier — 10 calls a day, no card · Pro is unlimited

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YouP(KNYC high > 85°F Friday)? Percentiles too.

Claude · probability_distribution P(high > 85°F) = 4.9%  → fair value ≈ 5¢
Monte Carlo over forecast uncertainty, station KNYC, Friday:

10th percentile76.8°F
25th percentile78.5°F
50th (median)80.4°F
75th percentile82.3°F
90th percentile84.0°F

Market asking 12¢? Model says ~5¢. The 7¢ is your call.

Real output. Estimates — not guarantees, not advice.

Everyone sees the point forecast.
Contracts pay on the distribution.

Betting one number is how traders go 0-for-32.

01 · ASK

One question in Claude

No tab ritual across Windy, model sites, a spreadsheet.

02 · SIMULATE

Monte Carlo over NWS data

Thousands of runs → bucket probability + percentiles.

03 · COMPARE

Edge = your probability − the price

Model 4.9%, market 12¢. A number to disagree with.

No testimonials yet. Here's what's real.

Settlement-grade data

Live NWS and NOAA CDO — the sources contracts settle against.

Built to stay up

Cloudflare edge, NWS-compliant caching, failover. No pipeline to babysit.

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Built by a trader — this engine ran on live Kalshi weather markets before it was a product.

Also runs crews

"Do we roll Thursday, or call the customer?"

Ask for the dry window, the overnight low, a multi-site brief. An idle crew costs hundreds a day; this is $19.

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"Which days this week give an 8-hour dry window in Marietta, GA for a tear-off?"

Tue & Thu clear 7am–6pm, <10% precip.
Wed: front arrives ~2pm — morning only.
Crane lift: wind advisory possible Fri.

Pricing

Verify it free. Then decide.

Monte Carlo on the free tier — 10 calls a day, no card. Pro is unlimited.

Free — start here

$0

10 calls/day · no card

  • Every tool — all six, nothing held back
  • Monte Carlo distributions + percentiles
  • Forecasts — 7-day + hourly to 156h
  • Alerts + historical base rates
  • Multi-station comparison — 2–8 stations
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  • Unlimited forecasts, hourly & alerts
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  • Base rates: "how often has it rained…"
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Subscribe — $19/mo
Pro — the trading tier

$49

per month · cancel anytime

  • Unlimited everything
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  • Multi-station comparison — 2–8 stations
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Go Pro — $49/mo

Stripe checkout · key shown instantly · cancel anytime. One mispriced contract covers months.

Straight answers.

Free MCPs exist. Why pay?

They do. You're paying for hosted: zero setup, real auth, support. Rather self-host? Go do that.

Is it calibrated?

No hit-rate claims we can't show. Score it free against this week's board.

Actual settlement stations?

Yes — station ID (KNYC, KMDW…), ZIP, or city. 1°F flips a contract.

The catch on free?

10 calls a day — that's it. Every tool, including Monte Carlo, no card. Pro ($49/mo) removes the cap.

How does connecting work?

Settings → Connectors → Add custom connector → paste our URL. API-key path in docs.

Get your number on Friday's contract.
Before you take the price.

This week's board is live. 10 free calls a day. No card.

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or skip straight to Pro — $49/mo