For Kalshi weather bettors

Stop paying 90¢
for 75¢ contracts.

You were sure. It settled against you anyway — because the other side had a model. Now you have one: ask Claude what any weather contract is actually worth.

Connect free in Claude Skip to Pro — $49/mo

~1 minute · 10 questions a day, free forever · no card · this week's board is live

Claude · SkewCast connected

YouSaturday NYC high above 92°F is at 40¢. Good bet?

Claude · SkewCast Model says 82%. At 40¢: underpriced — this is the bet.

Market price40¢
Model fair value≈82¢

10,000 simulated outcomes at KNYC, where it settles:

1-in-10 low side90.1°F
Most likely high95.8°F
1-in-10 high side99.4°F

Your number vs. their price.

Real output. Estimates — never guarantees or advice.

Friday morning. One question before the open — and you know which side of the trade you're on.

Connect free in Claude

10 questions a day, free forever · no card

Before your next bet:

STEP 1

Connect free

One minute. No card.

STEP 2

Ask about the contract you're eyeing

Plain English in, a number to disagree with out.

STEP 3

Bet only when the number says so

No number, no bet.

Or keep betting on gut.

Every gut bet against modeled money is a donation. A public autopsy, 0-for-32 on Kalshi weather: "I was treating 90–95% certainty contracts as slam dunks when they were actually 75–80% bets… walking into negative expected value with a smile on my face."

He paid 32 losses for the lesson. Read it. Yours is free.

Pricing

Your first 10 questions a day are free. Forever.

Why free? Nobody should pay for a model they haven't scored. Grade us against this week's board first.

Free — start here

$0

10 questions/day · no card · forever

  • The full model — nothing held back
  • If the numbers don't earn the $49, never pay us
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Pro — for bettors

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per month · cancel anytime

  • Unlimited everything
  • One mispriced contract covers months
Go Pro — $49/mo

Running crews instead? "Do we roll Thursday?" — an idle crew runs hundreds a day. Standard — $19/mo, unlimited daily-ops weather.

Receipts

For the skeptics.

Settlement-grade data

Live NWS & NOAA, at the stations contracts settle on (KNYC, KMDW…).

10,000-simulation model

Monte Carlo → distribution + percentiles. Hosted MCP, one-click OAuth.

Score it yourself

No hit-rate claims, no testimonials. Grade it free this week.

Built by a trader — this engine ran on live Kalshi weather markets first. If you want a pretty forecast app, this isn't it.

Straight answers.

Free open-source versions exist. Why pay?

They do. You're paying for hosted: zero setup, real auth, support. Rather self-host? Go ahead.

The catch on free?

10 questions a day. That's it. No card.

How does connecting work?

Claude → Settings → Connectors → paste our URL. Docs.

Friday's board settles Friday.
Get your number first.

10 free questions a day. No card.

Connect free in Claude

or skip to Pro — $49/mo