You were sure. It settled against you anyway — because the other side had a model. Now you have one: ask Claude what any weather contract is actually worth.
~1 minute · 25 questions a day, free, your first week — 10/day after, forever · no card · this week's board is live
YouSaturday NYC high above 92°F is at 40¢. Good bet?
Claude · SkewCast Model says 82%. At 40¢: underpriced — this is the bet.
10,000 simulated outcomes at KNYC, where it settles:
| 1-in-10 low side | 90.1°F |
| Most likely high | 95.8°F |
| 1-in-10 high side | 99.4°F |
Your number vs. their price.
You — another day (example)Chicago high above 87°F at KMDW is 79¢. Worth it?
Model says ≈80%. At 79¢: no edge — pass.
No trade. The market already knows.
Top answer: real output. The pass: an example. Estimates — never guarantees or advice.
A tool that always finds a trade is a tout. SkewCast mostly says pass.
Friday morning. One question before the open — and you know: trade, or pass.
Connect free in Claude25 questions a day, free, your first week — 10/day after, forever · no card
One minute. No card.
Plain English in, a number to disagree with out.
No edge, no trade.
Every gut bet against modeled money is a donation. A public autopsy, 0-for-32 on Kalshi weather: "I was treating 90–95% certainty contracts as slam dunks when they were actually 75–80% bets… walking into negative expected value with a smile on my face."
He paid 32 losses for the lesson. Read it. Yours is free.
Why free? Nobody should pay for a model they haven't scored. Grade us against this week's board first.
$0
25 questions a day, free, your first week — 10/day after, forever · no card
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per month · cancel anytime
Running crews? "Do we roll Thursday?" — an idle crew runs hundreds a day. Standard — $19/mo, unlimited job-site weather.
Live NWS & NOAA, at the stations contracts settle on (KNYC, KMDW…). Answers link straight to the exact contract on Kalshi.
A Monte Carlo engine plays each contract out 10,000 times and hands you the probabilities and percentiles. You just ask.
No hit-rate claims, no testimonials. Grade it free this week.
Built by a trader — this engine ran on live Kalshi weather markets first. It's the calibration edge, not the speed edge — the bots own the model-release sprint. If you want a pretty forecast app, this isn't it.
They do — if you want to install and babysit one yourself. We run everything for you: nothing to install, sign in once, and a human answers the support email. Rather build your own? Go ahead.
A daily cap: 25 questions a day your first week (launch gift), 10 a day after — forever. That's it. No card.
You add SkewCast to your Claude app once — Settings → Connectors → "Add custom connector" → paste our link — and from then on you just ask questions in plain English. Full walkthrough: the guide.
Email hello@sixthrule.dev from your purchase address — replacement within a day. Free accounts: just sign in with Claude again.
25 free questions a day your first week — 10/day after, forever. No card.
Connect free in ClaudeYour free account is created when you approve — 25 questions/day your first week, 10/day after, no card.
Stuck, or using Claude a different way? The step-by-step guide covers everything.